Who will win the 2014 Kentucky Derby?

This is an exciting week for horse racing fans like myself and even those that are not fans, the Kentucky Derby is a wonderful social event with this weekend’s running of the Kentucky Derby. My dream is to attend the race one day. Handicapping the Kentucky Derby is always a challenge with the field being so large with twenty horses. I consider myself a half way decent handicapper nowhere close to the professional horseplayers but I do love all what goes into trying to figure out which horse will win.

This year I have followed the Derby contenders more closely than I ever have and feel like I know who will be the contenders and who will be the pretenders in the Derby however don’t go to Twinspires and lose your home over my advice. Here goes nothing.

Kentucky Derby Contenders

California Chrome the obvious choice and the favorite is the horse to beat. I do however think he will be beat by Samraat but sure won’t be surprised if he wins. I think if he does win he has a great shot at winning the triple crown. I usually like picking the underdogs but California Chrome is such a great horse to root for and I would be happy if he did win.

Samraat  This New York bred has only lost one race which was in the Wood Memorial and he came in second to a storming Wicked Strong down the stretch. I think finishing second in the last race will make Samraat even stronger.

Intense Holiday I think this horse of all of four trained by leading trainer Todd Pletcher  has the best chance to be in contention coming of a second place finish to rival Vicar’s in Trouble after beating him in the Risen Star.

Wicked Strong  Being from Boston originally how can I not like the name of this horse. But even more than that Wicked Strong seems to be getting better with every race which is like heading into playoffs on a hot streak. His closing speed was incredible in the Wood Memorial.

Dance with Fate  Just won the Blue Grass with Corey Nakatani aboard against some great competition.

Vicar’s in Trouble Coming off a big win in the Louisiana Derby with Rosie Napravnik as his rider.

Tapiture This one is a longshot and has had some recent trouble races but there is something about this horse I like.

Wildcat Red Has had a taste of winning and coming off a second place in the Florida Derby I think he has chance to be in the running.

Uncle Sigh is my biggest longshot pick who is the rival of my top pick Samraat which I think is a good longshot angle.

Post Position Horse Jockey Opening Odds Updated Odds
1 Vicar’s in Trouble Rosie Napravnik 15-1 30-1
2 Harry’s Holiday Corey Lanerie 40-1 50-1
3 Uncle Sigh Irad Ortiz 35-1 30-1
4 Danza Joe Bravo 15-1 10-1
5 California Chrome Victor Espinoza 4-1 5-2
6 Samraat Jose L. Ortiz 18-1 50-1
7 We Miss Artie Javier Castellano 40-1 50-1
8 General Arod Joel Rosario 20-1 15-1
9 Vinceremos Joe Rocoo Jr 35-1 30-1
10 Wildcat Red Luis Saez 25-1 15-1
11 Hoppertunity Mike E. Smith Scratched
12 Dance With Fate Corey Nakatani 20-1 20-1
13 Chitu Martin Garcia 15-1 20-1
14 Medal Count Robby Albarado 15-1 20-1
15 Tapiture Ricardo Santana, Jr. 18-1 15-1
16 Intense Holiday John Velazquez 12-1 12-1
17 Commanding Curve Shawn Bridgmohan 30-1 50-1
18 Candy Boy Gary Stevens 20-1 20-1
19 Ride on Curlin Calvin Borel 15-1 15-1
20 Wicked Strong Rajiv Maragh 8-1 8-1
21 Pablo Del Monte Jeffrey Sanchez 50-1 50-1

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Kentucky Derby Past Performance Chart